So here’s what IDC is predicting the smartphone market will look like in 2015.

Basically IDC is assuming

• Windows Phone will just take the place of Symbian because of the Nokia deal. Assuming that the Nokia brand is so strong that it demands loyalty and Nokia will continue being one of the very few players that can manufacture cheap smartphones that people will flock too.
• That assumes Nokia is the only one capable of getting processor intensive Windows Phone to run on dirt cheap hardware.
• BlackBerry who seems to be pretty much dead in terms mindshare amongst consumers in 2011, either is able to keep on limping long enough to have some market share in 2015 or has some ace up its sleave that IDC knows about.
• iOS will somehow slip more places that BlackBerry

I think the only thing they got right is that Android will be the dominate player, purely by saturating the makret and nothing else.

If I was a company using IDC for business intelligence, I’d start looking elsewhere.

IDC Press Release